Ether (ETH) bulls have a few good reasons to celebrate the 20% gain between March 14 and March 24. The price increase surprised many and led to the first daily close above $3,000 in 34 days.
Even with this move, Marc’s $2.4 billion Ether options expiry is somewhat uncertain because bears can easily profit by pushing the price below $3,000.
In a letter to shareholders, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, noted that the global socio-political crisis and growing inflation could make way for a global digital payment network.
Moreover, cryptocurrency investors turned bullish after Terra co-founder Do Kwon reconfirmed plans for the giant $10-billion BTC allocation. On March 24, the third tranche of Tether (USDT) left a wallet thought to hold funds earmarked to purchase Bitcoin.
On the macroeconomic side, there have been mixed feelings. For example, retail sales in Canada grew 3.2% over the last month, which is above the 2.4% market expectation. On the other hand, the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index came at 6.2% year-over-year while expectations stood at 5.9%.
Bulls expected a miracle, and it did not happen
Ether’s recent strength might have come as a surprise for many, but some bulls were definitely over-optimistic. Even though the call (buy) option instruments dominate the March 25 options expiry, overconfident bulls placed bets at $5,000 and higher.
Ether options aggregate open interest for March. 25. Source: CoinGlass
A broader view using the call-to-put ratio shows a 178% advantage to Ether bulls as the $1.76 billion call (buy) instruments have a larger open interest versus the $630 million put (sell) options. However, the 2.78 call-to-put indicator is deceptive because most bullish bets will become worthless.
For example, if Ether’s price remains below $3,100 at 8:00 am UTC on March 25, only 10% of the call (buy) options will be available. That effect happens because there is no value in the right to buy Ether at $3,300 if it’s trading below that level.
Bears are better positioned despite having smaller numbers
Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price…
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