S&P 500: How Low Can Tesla Stock Still Go?

Tesla (TSLA) investors already lost nearly $700 billion on the stock this year. How much more can this S&P 500 stock drop?

Following Tesla stock’s 10% plunge Thursday, shares of the electric-auto maker dropped more than 60% this year to 125.35. That wipes out gains going back to 2020. Tesla stock investors, including Elon Musk himself, are down a massive $667 billion this year.

Tesla is already on some investors’ “avoid” list in the S&P 500.

“This stock was propped up by a stimulus-filled economy that shot its market cap into an extremely lofty trillion valuation and it really was a ‘story’ stock as many rallied behind Musk and the product they have,” said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management. “While certainly Tesla is still an attractive stock over the long term, with Musk selling so heavily and often, and investors seeing him gear his focus toward Twitter, it is to no surprise why it is down about 60% this year.”

But how low can this stock go, really?

Scenario #1 (Most Bullish): Analysts Are Right And Stock Jumps 104%

If you listen to the Wall Street analysts, Tesla stock is one of the biggest bargains in the S&P 500.

The average Wall Street analyst thinks Tesla will trade for 255.68 a share in 12 months. If they’re right, that would signal a 104% rally in the stock. That would make Tesla the third-best performing S&P 500 stock next year after Dish Network (DISH) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). It would also put more than $411 billion back into Tesla investors’ pockets.

Sound too far fetched? At least one computerized AI model thinks Tesla stock is worth even more than that. Trefis, a system that breaks down what a company is worth based on the sum of its parts, says Tesla stock is worth 272 a share. That means it’s due to rally more than 117% — an even more bullish call than analysts. Trefis makes this forecast on the assumption that Tesla’s energy generation and storage business only accounts for 0.5% of the stock’s value.