Bitcoin price stabilizes near $83K as investors eye S&P 500 recovery

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent volatility highlights how markets tend to overreact, especially in situations that can escalate, such as trade wars. The 6.5% drop in the S&P 500 since its all-time high on Feb. 19 might seem minor in absolute terms, but the potential earnings impact is more significant. However, derivatives markets suggest Bitcoin’s dip below $83,000 should be short-lived.

Traders tend to sell off assets when they sense a recession coming. Presently, investors are moving into cash and short-term government bonds. This shift explains why the US 2-year Treasury yield recently hit its lowest level in five months. Traders are willing to accept lower yields, which shows strong buying interest.

US 2-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Bitcoin derivatives markets held firm despite the 16% correction since the rejection at $99,500 on Feb. 21, indicating that whales and market makers do not expect further declines. More importantly, even if the much-anticipated United States strategic digital asset reserves fail to secure congressional approval, there is still strong political momentum at the state level, keeping the initiatives alive.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Bitcoin futures have maintained a stable 6.5% annualized premium (basis rate) over spot markets as of March 4, unchanged from the prior week. This metric remains within the neutral 5% to 10% range observed over the past four weeks—a clear indication that professional traders are unfazed by recent volatility, showing confidence in market stability.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) stood at 4% on March 4, reflecting balanced pricing between put (sell) and call (buy) options. Given the failed attempt to reclaim the $94,000 support on March 3, the low demand for protective puts signals resilience among investors.