Bitcoin holds ground as rate cut hopes fade
Bitcoin’s price is holding firm despite the market losing faith in more rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, according to Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo.
(Alex Thorn)
“Bitcoin has remained range-bound even as rate expectations have shifted meaningfully,” Perfumo tells Magazine.
Perfumo pointed out that not long ago, crypto traders were pricing in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2026. He said that outlook has since flipped due to rising geopolitical tensions — particularly the conflict in Iran — that have pushed crude oil higher, along with mounting inflation fears and yield levels.
“The long end of the curve is responding; the 10-year Treasury yield hit fresh year-to-date highs above 4.4%,” he says.
Higher interest rates are typically a bearish signal for risk assets such as Bitcoin, as safer instruments such as bonds and term deposits become more attractive to investors. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% during March.
“Now, US Fed Funds futures imply zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with a notable probability of a hike,” he adds.
Higher lows are a bullish sign
Crypto analysts are split on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said that Bitcoin’s structure is leaning bullish for now, based on the asset “constantly” printing higher lows.
“It doesn’t say that we’re out of the woods entirely, as those higher lows trigger a lot of liquidity if the markets get there,” he said in an X post.
Bitcoin is up 6.06% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin is trading at $68,895 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap.
Van de Poppe says that as long as Bitcoin holds around this level, the asset’s price should move back up toward $80,000.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Jelle said that Bitcoin’s repeated struggle to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could lead to a more aggressive downtrend. “Bulls want to see this reclaim sooner than later: rejecting again would likely mean a cascade…
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