Bitcoin (BTC) repeated earlier volatility at the April 1 Wall Street open as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin stays erratic ahead of crunch tariffs
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD making rapid moves within its weekly trading range of around $83,000.
US stocks ticked lower at the open, while gold came off fresh all-time highs of $3,149 per ounce.
Talk of recession began to return to the spotlight ahead of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” due on April 2 and on which he promised to unveil a new round of trade tariffs.
“Equity markets are clearly pricing-in a recession: The S&P 500 is down -2% since Fed rate cuts began in September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.
Kobeissi referred to the Federal Reserve easing of financial policy in the form of interest rate cuts — something now on pause but which markets see resuming in June, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
While this would be a clear bullish catalyst for crypto and risk assets, Kobeissi noted that history had not favored strong equities rebounds under similar circumstances.
“In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months,” it continued.
“The AVERAGE post-pivot return is +1% in 6 months.”
S&P 500 performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Trading firm QCP Capital was similarly cautious about the overall market landscape thanks to macroeconomic forces.
“With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn’t be worse,” it wrote about tariffs in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
“There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief…..
