Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis — a key metric measuring the original value of all Bitcoin holdings — reached an all-time high of $40,980 at the end of 2024, according to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report.
The Bitcoin (BTC) cost basis saw an 86% increase during the past year before reaching the record $40,980 per BTC, or $811.7 billion in total, according to the report.
Some investors view the aggregate cost metric as an indicator of Bitcoin’s fair value in the long term, which may emerge as a crucial support level during the next Bitcoin bear market.
Bitcoin aggregate cost basis. Source: ARK Invest
Analysts, including Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, say that Bitcoin’s “floor price” has already surpassed the $40,000 mark, making it a significant level of support.
Related: 2.5M Bitcoin left on crypto exchanges signals “supply shock”
Bitcoin’s “floor price” nears $44,000
Some metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s floor price is near $44,000, including the 200-week moving average — a popular technical indicator used to determine long-term market trends by removing the daily volatility.
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average reached $43,983 on Feb. 11 as Bitcoin traded above $95,740, CoinGlass data shows.
200-week moving average heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
This key indicator crossed the $40,000 psychological mark on Oct. 18, 2024, according to Back:
“The Bitcoin 200 week moving average, effectively the Bitcoin floor ‘up only’ price crossed $40k. You can view it as roughly the Bitcoin floor price without the volatility, at least historically.”
Related: Trump’s WLFI launches ’Macro Strategy’ fund for Bitcoin, Ether, altcoins
Bitcoin sensitive to CPI data
In the short term, Bitcoin’s price remains vulnerable to economic indicators, including January’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set for release on Feb. 12.
This could shape crypto investor sentiment for the following weeks, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo.
The analyst told Cointelegraph:
“A higher-than-expected reading may shift investor focus back to rate hikes, affecting BTC’s near-term trajectory……
