Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow 7% range since Nov. 12, signaling a period of consolidation around $91,000. Still, derivatives indicate that professional traders remain confident in the bull market. Additionally, multiple attempts to break above the $92,000 level suggest strong buying demand beyond the multiple MicroStrategy BTC acquisitions.
Bitcoin 30-day options 25% skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew has dropped to its lowest level in four months, indicating the market is pricing a discount for put (sell) options. Levels below -6% suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from whales and arbitrage desks.
While such data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are confident the bull market will continue. It is crucial to analyze the factors driving recent momentum. For example, if analysts view MicroStrategy as the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be visible in BTC futures and margin markets.
Is MicroStrategy the sole driver behind Bitcoin’s bull run?
The speculation that a few entities are responsible for the buying activity above $87,000 gained traction after MicroStrategy revealed an additional purchase of 51,780 BTC on Nov. 18. According to an SEC filing, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of MSTR shares.
By contrast, investors believe that Bitcoin has higher chances of continued price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show signs of early adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers. However, the latest data from Nov. 14 and Nov. 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows, as investors decided to take profits following the recent rally.
To understand how professional traders are positioned, it’s essential to analyze Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For example, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging…
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