This week was a real belt-buster on so many levels. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally gave a portion of the market what it wanted by tossing out a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
The S&P 500 hit another all-time high and gold remains in up-only mode.
In response to the policy shift and other factors, Bitcoin (BTC) broke out and found strength up to $64,133. Even with the long-awaited Fed policy shift confirmed, Bitcoin’s day-to-day price action has yet to deviate from its six-month norm.
As mentioned in previous weeks, the Bitcoin chart shows a structurally ordered downtrend. On the higher timeframe, price is making weekly lower highs, and futures-driven liquidations drive the price action. Even the Sept. 18 to Sept. 20 move to the range highs is within the boundaries of the current six-month range.
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
At the time of writing, BTC price can be observed peeling back from resistance at the previous (Aug. 24) breakout high at $65,000 which also lines up with the 200-day moving average. If the weekly candle closes below this level, then the pattern of weekly lower highs is still in play.
A natural outcome of a breakout like the one seen this week would be for price to retest underlying support near the 20-day moving average ($60,000 to $58,500 range), especially if traders fail to follow through on the current breakout with sustained spot volumes. During the last 6-months, spot volumes have been relatively flat, while a majority of Bitcoin’s price action has been driven by futures liquidations and options market activity.
1 week view of Bitcoin futures liquidations and aggregate spot volumes. Source: Coinalyze
On the flipside, following this week’s FOMC, there has been an uptick in Bitcoin’s open interest and if traders persist in attacking the $64,000 to $66,000 zone there is a chance of breaking through the descending channel and altering Bitcoin’s higher timeframe market structure.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
As shown in the chart above, BTC price has been unable to push through the channel’s descending trendline since April 24…
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