Bitcoin (BTC) price is down by roughly $4,000 since the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S., signaling a growing “sell-the-news” sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, technical chart patterns hint at the possibility of a continued sell-off in the coming days or weeks.
What could happen next, and how low could the Bitcoin price go?
Bitcoin’s maximum pain target is $34,850
As seen on the daily chart below, Bitcoin’s price trajectory shows consolidation within a bullish channel.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) has provided support near $42,120, with prices oscillating above it as of Jan. 14. However, the relative strength Index (RSI) hovers near the mid-line, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum.
In addition, the RSI has recently formed lower highs as opposed to Bitcoin’s higher highs, a sign of growing bearish divergence.
Therefore, if the BTC price breaks below the 50-day EMA, it could seek the next support near the bullish channel’s lower trendline. This trendline coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $34,850, a low not seen since the Q4, 2023-consolidation phase.
Bankers will crash Bitcoin to $25,000–$30,000
However, market commentators such as Crypto Poseidonn see a Bitcoin price crash toward the $25,000–$30,000 range, noting that this is where most recent buyers accumulated BTC.
In the first scenario, investors that have acquired Bitcoin between $25,000 and $30,000 on ETF approval expectations will not profit much because bankers will likely not pay them a substantial premium over these prices.
Therefore, as Bitcoin approaches $30,000, the bankers may buy from investors, establishing a new market bottom.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: Crypto Poseidonn/TradingView
However, the market may correct below $25,000 in the second scenario, allowing new institutional investors to acquire even more BTC with leverage.
Another analyst, Rhaonnor, argues that the market has already priced in the Bitcoin ETF rally, suggesting that the range between $24,000 and $32,000 should…
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