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Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner cut his price target on Tesla stock to $285 from $300.
John Thys/AFP via Getty Images
Analysts are focused on Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries, and lowering estimates. That is unnerving investors. Both groups, however, might want to look a little farther down the road because the outlook for 2024 may be deteriorating.
Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner kept his Buy rating on
Tesla
stock (ticker: TSLA) but cut his price target to $285 from $300. Many of his peers have been worried about a third-quarter delivery miss. A bigger worry drove his target-price reduction, however.
“Tesla’s 3Q 2023 deliveries and production could miss Street expectations, but more important, we see meaningful downside risk to 2024 consensus due to limited volume growth next year,” wrote Rosner.
His estimate for third-quarter deliveries is now 440,000 units, down from 455,000 units. That is more drastic than the new consensus estimate for 462,000 units, down from 473,00 units a few weeks ago, according to FactSet.
Tesla delivery estimates get trimmed coming to the end of most quarters, but these third-quarter cuts are larger than in the past. Planned plant downtime to change tooling for an upgraded Model 3 is the main reason Rosner and other analysts cite for all of the recent cuts.
A weak quarter certainly matters, but the bigger issue is the 2024 demand.
“Tesla indicated recently at our [Munich auto show] investor meetings that it is no longer planning to expand output at Austin and Berlin factories to 10,000 per week, providing only incremental volume from these…
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