Dogecoin hits 4-month lows vs. Bitcoin — 50% DOGE price rebound now in play

Dogecoin (DOGE) pared some losses versus Bitcoin (BTC) on March 10, a day after the DOGE/BTC pair fell to its lowest level since October 2022. Can the DOGE price see an extended rebound ahead? 

On the daily chart, the DOGE/BTC pair reached 331 sats, up 4.75% compared to the previous day’s low of 316 sats. The bounce occurred around a multimonth descending trendline, which has capped the pair’s downside moves since November 2022.

DOGE/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

DOGE price vs. BTC

Interestingly, the DOGE/BTC descending trendline appears to be part of a prevailing falling wedge pattern. Traditional chart analysts consider the falling wedge a bullish reversal setup, notably because of the pattern’s 62% success rate in meeting its upside price targets.

In Dogecoin’s case, the price is wobbling around its falling wedge’s apex point, where its upper and lower trendlines converge. DOGE’s latest rebound from the lower trendline increases its possibility of testing the upper trendline for a breakout, as illustrated in the chart below.

DOGE/BTC daily price chart featuring falling wedge breakout. Source: TradingView

The upside setup further draws support from the DOGE/BTC’s daily relative strength index (RSI), with a reading of around 28. From a technical perspective, an RSI below 30 means the pair is oversold, which could prompt its price to consolidate sideways or rebound.

In the event of a breakout, DOGE/BTC can rise toward 500 sats by April, up 50% from current price levels. The upside target is measured after adding the maximum distance between the falling wedge’s upper and lower trendline to the breakout point. 

However, a decisive drop below the falling wedge’s lower trendline risks invalidating the whole upside setup. Instead, DOGE can drop toward 280 sats, a historical support level down around 13% from current price levels.

Such a scenario is possible given Dogecoin’s stint with a failed falling wedge pattern in March 2022, where the DOGE/USD pair broke below the lower trendline — 50% losses followed.

Which way for DOGE price?

However, Dogecoin could still fall in U.S. dollar terms,…



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