Bitcoin on-chain data highlights key similarities between the 2019 and 2023 BTC price rally

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price rally from $16,500 to $25,000 can be attributed to a short squeeze in the futures market and recent macroeconomic improvements. However, while prices increased, data suggests that many interested buyers (including whales) were left on the sidelines. 

The recent rally to $25,000 shared many similarities with the 2019 bear market rally, which saw a 330% surge in Bitcoin’s price to highs around $14,000 from the November 2019 low at $3,250. Recently, the BTC/USD pair rose 60% from its November 2022 low.

On-chain and market indicators relative to the 2019 rally are sending mixed signals on whether or not Bitcoin’s rally will continue. Nevertheless, there are strong reasons to believe that the market has reached a crucial turning point where it can either turn into a full-fledged bull market or slump back into a long-term bear trend.

Let’s look at the top five indicators to understand the current price dynamic relative to the 2019 bull run.

Bitcoin tackles historical trading levels

Bitcoin’s price surpassed the 200-day moving average (MA) at $19,600, which could encourage paper traders looking to open a long position. Historically, this metric has acted as a bull-bear pivot line, with breakouts above it being bullish and vice versa.

BTC/USD usually retests the 200-day MA on a breakout, which raises the possibility of a correction toward $19,500. However, this was not the case in 2019, when the price continued rising without a pullback to the 200-day MA.

BTC/USD daily price chart with 200-day MA metric. Source: TradingView

At the same time, traders are likely paying attention to the 200-period weekly moving average at $25,100. Bitcoin price had never dropped below the 200-weekly MA until November 2022 and reclaiming this level could encourage technical buyers to join the bandwagon. 

However, until a breakout happens, traders might continue to stay on the sidelines. The funding rates for perpetual swap contracts are currently neutral, suggesting that traders are waiting for confirmation.

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