The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC), and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).
Will it continue to weaken for the remainder of 2023? Let’s take a closer look at the charts.
Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin
The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week. In doing so, the pair broke below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC, raising downside risks further into 2023.
The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
ETH/BTC stares at similar selloff risks in 2023 after losing its 200-week EMA as support. In this case, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fib line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.
Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if it reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.
Bitcoin bull case overshadows Ethereum
Ethereum’s persistent weakness versus Bitcoin is reflected in institutional capital flow data.
For instance, as of Oct. 6, Bitcoin-specific investment funds had attracted $246 million year-to-date (YTD), according to CoinShares. On the other hand, Ethereum funds have lost capital, witnessing outflows worth $104 million in the same period.
Net flows into crypto funds (by asset). Source: CoinShares
The discrepancy is likely due to growing buzz about a potential spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETF) approval in the U.S.
Trade pundits argue that a spot Bitcoin ETF launch will attract $600 billion. In addition, Bitcoin’s fourth halving on April 24, 2024, is also acting as a tailwind versus the altcoin market.
Related: Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC
The halving will reduce the Bitcoin miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, a bullish…
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