Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $30,000 level on July 18, which given the developments of the last month, retail investors may not have expected, but does today’s downside move represent an upcoming shift in the trend?
Data suggests that over the longer-term it does not.
To get to the positives first, Bitcoin price is still attempting to flip the $30,000 level to support after about 10 attempts since April of this year, but price is continuously finding buyers in the $28,000 to $25,000 range which buyers seem to be viewing as an accumulation zone.
On-chain data from Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score supports this sentiment and could be a positive, depending on how investors’ look at things given that the behavior of investors at $30,000 BTC price mirrors the same accumulation behavior seen in the $28,000 to $24,000 zone and the near the supposed $16,800 bottom.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. Source: Glassnode
According to Glassnode, “an Accumulation Trend Score of closer to 1 indicates that on aggregate, larger entities (or a big part of the network) are accumulating, and a value closer to 0 indicates they are distributing or not accumulating.”
Basically, buyers strongly accumulated from November to December and they were heavy accumulators from March to April when BTC recaptured $30,000. The metric suggests they are doing the same in July as BTC attempts to either conquer the $30,000 resistance or received a boost from all the ETF and XRP SEC news.
Bitcoin is in a crab market
The current price action and derivatives market data suggest that Bitcoin is in a crab market, where price remains range bound and consolidates for a prolonged period of time. As JLabs analyst JJ the Janitor pointed out last week, a strong push through the $32,000 level would catalyze a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era.
Bitcoin CME Futures showcasing Luna crash CME Gap. Source: JJ The Janitor
From the perspective of Bitcoin’s weekly market structure, the $30,000 level is an important pivot point that has functioned as support in the previous bull market cycle (and now as resistance) but a grab above…
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