Key takeaways:
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With says BTC could gain 100% to 200%, with a cycle peak between $220,000 to $330,000.
Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong cyclical volatility, contradicting the belief that its price swings are softening over time.
Over $4 billion in BTC has been moved by long-term holders, warning of a price correction.
Analysis from Bitcoin (BTC) researcher Sminston With implied that a BTC price peak is still 100% to 200% away from current prices. In a recent X post, With shared a Bitcoin price chart using a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96).
The model suggests Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable, non-random pattern over time, distinct from the exponential growth models often applied to stocks and equities.
Bitcoin power law fit analysis by Sminston With. Source: X
The chart revealed that Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA typically peaks 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline in each market cycle. With Bitcoin priced at $110,000 on May 27, this model projects a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000. This forecast aligns with historical patterns, where Bitcoin has consistently overshot this trendline during bullish phases, offering an optimistic outlook for investors.
A second graph in the post highlights Bitcoin’s price deviation from the power law fit, showing steady cyclical volatility without exponential decay in sustained peaks.
This challenges the common belief that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less extreme over time, indicating that the cryptocurrency’s volatility remains a defining trait, potentially leading to significant price swings over the next few months.
In Q3 2024, With accurately predicted that Bitcoin would reach a six-figure price by January 2025, when BTC was trading around $60,000. The analysis examined each decaying peak by assessing BTC’s price at cycle highs.
A decaying period in an investment cycle occurs when a strategy’s returns decline as the opportunity becomes widely adopted, culminating in a peak where the asset’s value drops sharply, leading to mass profit-taking.
With’s…
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