Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a swift 4.40% rally after forming a new range at $93,321 on Feb. 18. However, the crypto asset continued to trend down on a high-time frame (HTF) chart, oscillating with a descending channel pattern.
Bitcoin 4-hout chart analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With the current range high at $102,000 and the range low at $91,000, Bitcoin’s market structure lacks a sense of urgency. This sluggish momentum has gradually impacted its onchain and institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows drop
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, mentioned in an X post that the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is currently halved in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The analyst pointed out that the current net inflow is around 41,000 BTC, while it was around 100,000 BTC in 2024.
Bitcoin net cumulative inflows to spot ETFs. Source: X.com
However, when measured in dollar terms, the difference in demand was minimal, with ETF inflows totaling approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 compared to $4.3 billion in 2025.
From an institutional trading perspective, Vetle Lunde, research analyst at K33 research, pointed out that the 1-month basis of CME Bitcoin futures has dropped to lows last witnessed in September 2023, i.e., before the beginning of this bull market.
Bitcoin CME futures 1-month basis. Source: X..com
The 1-month basis measures the percentage difference between the front-month futures price and Bitcoin’s spot price. It indicates whether futures trade at a premium (contango) or discount (backwardation) relative to the spot market. Whenever the 1-month basis is positive, it indicates strong demand for long exposure, implying bullish sentiment, and negative data highlights a bearish outlook and short-term liquidity concerns.
While the current 1-month basis is positive, Lunde said that “risk-averse” conditions are currently evident. The analyst added,
“Trading volumes are at pre-election levels, there are no material ETF flows, and volatility is gone.”
BTC CME futures annualized basis. Source: Velo.data
Interestingly, Bitcoin CME’s annualized basis also dropped to a 4-month low, which…
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