Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) price has whipsawed in both directions. The most recent swoop to the downside saw BTC price fall to $89,600 on Jan. 13, leading market participants to speculate on whether a CME Bitcoin futures gap below $80,000 could be filled.
This gap, which formed between Nov. 9 to Nov. 10, saw the futures price rise 3.8% from $77,900 to $80,900. Following the nature and logic of CME gaps, some traders anticipate that Bitcoin may soon correct to these levels to fill in the gap.
Why traders focus on CME gaps
In traditional finance, candlestick gaps on asset charts occur when there is a difference between an asset’s closing price at the end of one trading session and its opening price in the next. The BTC CME gap, however, is unique due to Bitcoin’s never-ending trading cycle in decentralized and centralized exchanges. This means that when the CME reopens on Sunday evening, BTC futures must take into account BTC spot price movements that occurred during the weekend.
BTC CME futures 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The gap can be further amplified by the nature of financial derivatives, which are driven by expectations of future price movements rather than the immediate market conditions influencing spot trading. Thus, BTC CME futures are often priced higher than spot BTC when the markets are optimistic (in contango) and lower when the sentiment is pessimistic (in backwardation).
Related: Bitcoin could dip to $70K, but current price a ‘good entry point’ — Fundstrat
CME gaps are often closed over time as the market corrects after an initial overreaction. Some gaps can remain open during strong market momentums, such as Bitcoin’s rally in March 2023, but as most traders anticipate it happening, this expectation can also create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Will the CME gap be filled soon?
If the CME gap were to be filled, BTC could potentially drop to $77,900.
For JJ, the head of crypto derivatives at the trading firm HighStrike, this scenario looks likely.
“Considering BTC’s lack of momentum to begin 2025 we should consider the CME gap resting down below $78K as a primary area…..
