Bitcoin’s climb toward $100,000 has seen a significant amount of offloads from long-term holders, which some analysts say signals a potential top that could turn markets bearish and catch traders offside when buy-side demand starts to wane.
“It’s a game of musical chairs: enjoy the ride, but be prepared when the music stops,” CryptoQuant contributor Maartuun said in a Dec. 8 X post.
Long-term hodlers are offloading their Bitcoin
Since Nov. 8, long-term holders — wallets who have held Bitcoin (BTC) for at least 155 days — have sold 827,783 BTC worth around $82.6 billion at its current price of around $99,200.
Source: Maartuun
Maartuun highlighted the 149,800 BTC purchased by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and the 84,193 BTC worth of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the same period.
Still, he said that these are the equivalent of just 30% of what’s being sold by long-term holders.
“The overall market is much larger than just them,” he said.
Maartuun suggested that Bitcoin is maintaining its strength despite the strong sell pressure from long-term holders due to retail demand also reaching its “yearly highs,” according to CryptoQuant’s retail demand 30-day change chart.
Source: Maartuun
“Retail is also involved in futures trading,” he said. CoinGlass shows Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Bitcoin derivative contracts such as options and futures — is $61.2 billion at the time of publication.
Long-term Bitcoin holders sitting on significant unrealized profits
Maartuun also claimed that the sell-side risk ratio and the net taker volume may indicate “a top.”
Related: Bitcoin dominance hints at ‘altseason,’ analysts eye XRP price rally into 2025
According to Bitbo data, the Long Term Holder realized price — the average price paid by long-term Bitcoin holders — is $24,481, representing about a 400% average gain for long-term holders.
Source: Maartuun
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price was $99,203, according to CoinMarketCap.
On Dec. 6, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said liquidity…
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