Bitcoin’s price closed below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the second week in a row, but over the past 24 hours, it has rebounded above $60,000. Several charts indicate that long-term holders remain unfazed by the current price action. Is a bullish breakout possible after August?
Bitcoin long-term holder realized cap hits $3 billion
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has closed below the 200-day EMA only three times in 2024. As the chart below shows, July 4 marked the first bearish close under the 200-day EMA.
The BTC/USD pair reclaimed a position above the EMA in less than 10 days. This time around, the asset spent less than 24 hours before it was back above the indicator, confirming that bullish momentum is slowly picking up this week.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin investors can be divided into short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). They have different trading strategies and time preferences.
STHs are investors or traders engaging in day trading or scalping, focusing on quick returns during a relatively shorter period. Many of these are retail or low to medium-net-worth individuals or entities.
On the other hand, LTHs consist of traders undertaking a long-term buy-and-hold strategy for at least six months. Many of these entities represent high-net-worth individuals or large organizations, particularly in the era of Bitcoin ETFs.
Recent data suggests that the LTH’s realized market capitalization change recorded a positive net value of $3 billion, previously observed in December 2023.
The Bitcoin realized cap is the cumulative sum of all realized profits minus realized losses. In other words, the aggregate value has flowed into the Bitcoin onchain, minus capital flowing out via losses.
Bitcoin long-term holders net position realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant
Amr Taha, a crypto analyst, highlighted the above change in realized market cap, stating:
While STH increases selling, This indicates that LTH continue to accumulate While STH is being selling at a worse price.
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