Key takeaways:
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in four weeks.
While strong ETF inflows often drive Bitcoin rallies, recent data shows price movements can occur independently.
Despite short-term selling pressure, long-term BTC whale buying suggests a potential continuation of the BTC uptrend.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market posted a 90+% drop in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, falling from $3 billion in the last week of April to just $228 million this week.
Historically, a slowdown in ETF inflows has impacted BTC price, notably when daily inflows averaged over $1.5 billion for consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact on Bitcoin, let’s examine four key periods of significant spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC price movements.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ net inflows. Source: SoSoValue
In Q1 2024, from Feb. 2 to March 15, the spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in net inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% price surge. Although BTC prices peaked in week five, as $4.8 billion inflows in the final two weeks did not push its value higher.
Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Similarly, Q3 2024 saw $16.8 billion in inflows over nine weeks from Oct. 18 to Dec. 13, fueling a 66% rally. However, when inflows slowed in the 10th week, Bitcoin’s price dropped 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF flows and price corrections.
In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks (Jan. 17–24) coincided with a new all-time high of $110,000 on Jan. 20, but overall prices fell 4.8%.
Most recently, Q2 2025 (April 25–May 9) saw $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% price rally, though Bitcoin had already gained 8% in the prior two weeks despite negative netflows.
Bitcoin price and spot ETFs correlation. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph
This data challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows consistently drive prices. While Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 suggest strong inflows fuel rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 show prices can stagnate or fall despite significant inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially independent of spot ETF activity, hints at other drivers like…
..
