Bitcoin’s price action is mimicking the 2016 to 2017 cycle and could hit a top of $150,000, says Glassnode lead analyst James Check.
Check said in a Jan. 23 episode of the Theya podcast that $120,000 to $150,000 is what he would call the “topping cloud” for Bitcoin (BTC), and any level above that likely won’t hold for long.
Bitcoin likely won’t hold at $150,000
“We can absolutely bust out the top end of that, with a very, very low probability of staying at the top end,” Check said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,019, and Check added that the “average guy” is “quite profitable” if it reaches $120,000 — significantly more so if it reaches $150,000.
“Above that is speculative fever, and I probably would think if we go above it, we will go back down through it,” he said.
Bitbo data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holders have paid an average of $90,349 per BTC, while long-term holders have paid an average of $24,627.
The cryptocurrency hitting $150,000 would give short-term holders an average of 66% profit and long-term holders an average of 509% profit.
Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized price is $24,627. Source: Bitbo
“A lot of comparisons” to 2017 cycle
Check said, “There are a lot of comparisons” between the current crypto cycle and the cycle between 2016 and 2017.
“The way I would describe 2016-2017, very spot driven, we didn’t actually have derivatives, stablecoins weren’t really significant,” he said.
Bitcoin was consolidating and fluctuating around $800 and $1,600 in the first half of 2017 before surging in the second half to hit a peak of $19,783.
If Bitcoin continues to follow the 2017 pattern, the asset may stay in a consolidation period until May.
“We’re getting these nice moderate rallies, nice corrections, moderate rallies, cool down,” Check said.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $104,120, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin is trading at $104,120 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Other traders say Bitcoin might not hit its 2025 peak until later in the year.
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