(Bloomberg) — US equity futures fluctuated as voting got underway after one of the most dramatic American presidential campaigns in modern history.
Most Read from Bloomberg
While markets looked relatively subdued in early Tuesday trading, nerves are running high as traders anticipate a long night of ballot counting and the potential for sharp swings no matter the outcome. Overhanging the mood on Wall Street remains the threat of a contested election that has little precedent.
“What you can see across markets now is that no one is ready to take clear investment positions on the election,” said Alexandre Hezez, chief investment officer at Groupe Banque Richelieu in Paris. “The uncertainty is palpable across all asset classes. There’s such a massive gap between the program of the two candidates that caution is of the essence.”
That sense of caution showed as stock investors held off on trading and volumes were relatively low in Europe. S&P 500 futures added 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose two basis points to 4.31%. The dollar weakened. Bitcoin gained 2.7%.
Tech outperformed, with Nasdaq 100 contracts climbing 0.2%. Palantir Technologies Inc. surged 13% in premarket trading on record profit and high demand for its artificial intelligence software. Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. were up slightly.
Wall Street’s Great Election Trades Now Face the Moment of Truth
Across markets, there were clear signs of traders bracing for volatility. Options data suggests a 1.8% move in either direction for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, according to Citigroup’s head of equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser.
US exchange-traded funds investing in Bitcoin shed $579.5 million on Monday, the highest daily net outflow on record. In Treasuries, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of implied fluctuations in yields, hit the highest since October 2023.
Currency markets, particularly the dollar and Mexican peso, were also being closely monitored as barometers for Trump versus Harris election strategies. For the Mexican peso, implied volatility for the currency is now near…
..
