Bitcoin (BTC) surged 9.7% from Oct. 27 to Oct. 29, reaching a peak of $73,575, before paring gains to retest the $71,500 level on Oct. 30. Despite Bitcoin’s price correction, several indicators—including derivatives market activity, onchain metrics, and stablecoin demand—suggest a solid foundation for a sustained rally above $73,000 in the near term.
But, the Bitcoin futures premium—a key gauge of leveraged demand—signals strong conviction from bullish investors.
Bitcoin 2-month futures premium. Source: laevitas.ch
In neutral market conditions, monthly futures contracts usually carry a 5% to 10% annualized premium to account for the longer settlement period. Currently, the 13% premium is at its highest level in over four months, showing no apparent weakness, despite Bitcoin’s rejection at $73,575.
Bitcoin price closely followed gold, which initially spiked to an all-time high of $2,790 on Oct. 30, but subsequently lost some momentum.
Gold/USD (left) vs. BTC/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Gold’s pullback can be partially attributed to recent macroeconomic data released on Oct. 30, such as the United States’ private payrolls report, which showed an increase of 233,000 jobs in October. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported third-quarter GDP growth at 2.8%, slightly below the 3% growth from the previous quarter.
This economic resilience reduces the likelihood of further aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, dampening immediate demand for alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Moreover, a strong economy does not necessarily boost demand for US government bonds. As the public deficit raises concerns, refinancing costs for government debt have risen, with yields on the 5-year US Treasury increasing from 3.5% to 4.1% over the past month.
Bitcoin onchain and derivatives metrics signal optimism
Given the ongoing skepticism over the US macroeconomic policies’ outcome, Bitcoin’s resilience amid a short-term price pullback should be unsurprising. Still, regarding exchange net flows, there was a substantial wave of deposits when Bitcoin’s price surpassed $70,000 on Oct. 29,…
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