How high can Bitcoin price go in the run-up to the US election?

Bitcoin (BTC) may have reached a local bottom during the global market rout on Aug. 5, when its price dipped to a six-month low of approximately $49,500.

This potential bottom aligns with historical patterns observed in previous US election years, where Bitcoin has consistently found its local low in the third quarter, typically around July or August.

Can Bitcoin hit a new record high before the election?

Technical analyst SuperBro highlighted that Bitcoin’s third-quarter bottoms in 2012, 2016, and 2020 followed strong upward momentum, often leading to price rallies to new record highs after the US presidential elections.

Bitcoin price performances in the third quarter of US election years. Source: SuperBro

Given this historical precedent, there is growing anticipation that Bitcoin may resume its uptrend as it approaches the November 2024 election, which features a high-stakes contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

SuperBro bolstered his bullish outlook for Bitcoin by referencing the “left-translated cycle” theory. This theory posits that Bitcoin’s bullish cycles are beginning earlier and potentially reaching their peaks sooner than in previous cycles.

Source: X

Key evidence supporting this theory is that Bitcoin’s most recent peak occurred a month before its fourth halving in April 2024. This is unusual compared to past cycles, where the peak typically followed the halving event.

If the left-translated cycle holds, Bitcoin could begin its ascent before traditional market participants expect, probably hitting a new record high ahead of the election. This could catch off guard the “mid curve” — or those who are slower to adapt to changing market dynamics.

As a result, these investors might be sidelined if they wait too long, missing out on the rally’s initial stages.

Fundamentally, Trump’s positive stance on Bitcoin and potential regulatory changes under different administrations could fuel speculative buying, leading to accelerated price increases.

According to the crypto betting service Polymarket, Trump’s winning odds have improved.