It’s been a very trying first quarter for Tesla (TSLA) shareholders and fans of the EV giant.
Through Thursday, the last trading day of the first quarter, Tesla stock is down a whopping 29.3%, making it the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is actually up 10.2%, its best first quarter since 2019.
For Tesla, a combination of poor guidance, a tough selling environment in China, and more drama from CEO Elon Musk led the EV maker, which topped $750 billion in market cap to start the year, to shed over $200 billion of that since Jan. 1.
Here’s how it all went down.
A warning to start the quarter
The first quarter started off fine for Tesla, when the EV juggernaut reported Q4 deliveries hit a record 485K, with its full-year 2023 total of 1.8 million also meeting estimates.
But that may be the high-water mark for Tesla, at least for the time being.
In its Q4 earnings report released in late January, Tesla said its “vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023,” indicating it would not reach Street estimates of 2.19 million for 2024. Tesla also saw its automotive profit margin dip following steep price cuts.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, one of the biggest Tesla bulls on Wall Street, was not impressed by the lowered guidance and the lack of real commentary given to explain it. “I still struggle to think of another company which provided such scant level of details on the forward-year outlook,” Jonas said in a note to investors. “Our team is left with the impression that either (a) visibility is poor or (b) there are downside risks in the broader EV market outside of Tesla’s control.”
Part of that forward guidance, at least in the long term, revolved around Tesla’s yet-to-be-named next-generation vehicle, which Tesla said would impact growth. Though Tesla said its plan is to get the vehicle to market as soon as possible, with production slated for Giga Austin, Tesla revealed the vehicle would only hit production in the second half of 2025.
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Tesla has blown its own external…
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