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Eli Lilly stock could soar 140% by 2028 as millions of Americans begin to take their GLP-1 weight loss drugs, according to Goldman Sachs.
The firm estimated that if all GLP-1 trials succeed, 68 million Americans could be taking the drugs by 2028.
“Total annual revenue has the potential to reach $400 billion in a scenario where all 23 upcoming studies are successful,” Goldman said.
Eli Lilly stock has been on a tear over the past year, but it could still have significant upside ahead, according to new research from Goldman Sachs.
The bank said the rapid rise of GLP-1 diabetes and weight loss drugs like Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy could lead to as many as 68 million Americans taking the drug by 2028, or about 20% of the country’s population.
That potential success could drive GLP-1 drug revenues to soar to $400 billion, which is well ahead of some Wall Street estimates that suggests GLP-1 drugs will do only $100 billion in revenue by 2030.
“Total annual revenue has the potential to reach $400 billion in a scenario where all 23 upcoming studies are successful, manufacturing is able to meet growing demand and pricing is consistent with our previously published models,” Goldman analysts said.
While a lot has to go right for Goldman’s projection to prove true, the bank highlights that investors are underestimating how far-reaching GLP-1 drugs can be beyond obesity, and compared the drugs to a platform akin to Apple’s iPhone and Amazon’s e-commerce business.
“With the recent success of GLP-1s, we believe Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and others have the opportunity to expand into categories far beyond what most investors are currently contemplating,” Goldman said.
The firm said the most important GLP-1 studies investors should watch are the SYNCHRONIZA-CVOT, REDEFINE-3, and the SURMOUNT-MMO from Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly, respectively.
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These studies are researching the benefit of taking GLP-1 drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular disease…
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