Bitcoin’s price (BTC) broke below its 55-day support at $27,000 on May 12. As a result, the two-day, 7% correction to $26,155 caused $100 million worth of long BTC futures contracts to be liquidated.
However, Bitcoin margin and futures markets displayed strength during the down-move, fueling hope of a recovery toward $28,000.
Regulatory pressure, stronger U.S. dollar bite
Regulatory uncertainty in the United States significantly increased after Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital received another subpoena. The publicly traded mining company informed investors on May 10 that it received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning whether it may have violated federal securities laws, among other things, by using related-party transactions.
Furthermore, there’s the additional risk of the 627,522 Bitcoin held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which has been trading at a steep discount for over a year as Grayscale’s holding company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), struggles with some failing subsidiaries. DCG’s crypto lending and trading firm, Genesis Capital, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January.
Despite having separate corporate structures, Genesis had “intercompany obligations” with holding company DCG, so the consequences for the administration of the Grayscale funds are unknown. Additionally, the group reportedly owes Gemini’s clients about $900 million, and the U.S. SEC charged Genesis and Gemini in January.
Bitcoin’s 7.2% correction happened as the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, displayed strength. The indicator reached 101 on May 8, nearing its 12-month low, a sign of low confidence in the government’s ability to curb inflation while simultaneously managing to increase the debt limit.
Historically, there has been an inverse correlation between the DXY index and risk-on assets such as Bitcoin, given that a weaker dollar tends to drive demand for alternative stores of value and scarce assets.
Let’s look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are…
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