BTC price metric that cued biggest Bitcoin bull runs breaks out at $23K

A little-known Bitcoin (BTC) price metric has just given a new bull run signal — and it has never been wrong.

As noted on Feb. 8 by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, the Williams %R oscillator has left its bottom zone for the first time since May 2022.

Analyst: Oscillator crossover is a “great sign”

Bitcoin gaining 40% in January and continuing to hold higher levels has produced breakout signals across various on-chain indicators.

Some analysts are cautious, opting to wait and see if the improved conditions last, but for Franzen, the data coming from the Williams %R oscillator is of particular interest.

Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures how near BTC/USD is to its recent highs or lows. Momentum oscillators are utilized to measure the strength of a price trend, and Bitcoin’s January performance has made it a prime test case.

“Bitcoin’s 12-month Williams%R oscillator left the ‘oversold’ threshold as of January’s monthly close!” Franzen wrote in part of a dedicated Twitter thread.

“Historically, leaving the lower-bound has signaled two things: 1. The cycle lows are in. 2. The bear market is over.”

He added that the phenomenon was a “great sign” while acknowledging that a bull run was not guaranteed.

An accompanying chart nonetheless showed the tight relationship between such Williams %R threshold crosses and subsequent long-term BTC price behavior.

The last, for example, came in April 2019, with BTC/USD then beginning its journey out of its bear market lows to ultimately hit all-time highs in November 2021.

A “caveat,” meanwhile, comes in the form of varying timeframes for Williams %R. Franzen noted that only the 12-month iteration of the metric had flipped bullish, with the 18-month version remaining “oversold.”

“If/when this crosses > oversold, it will add to the bull case,” he added.

BTC/USD with Williams %R oscillator annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter