Softer-than-expected crypto regulation and stocks’ rebound position Bitcoin for a $42K close

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls jumped in to defend the $40,000 level after a devastating retest of the $38,000 support on March 7. The confidence and momentum that was building up earlier in the month was suddenly shattered after BTC failed to break $44,500 for the third time this month on March 2.

The Bitcoin price rally on March 9 has been partially attributed to this week’s expected United States inflation data report. Analysts expect another 40-year record high as the consumer price index (CPI) reaches 7.9% yearly gains.

Furthermore, a statement from the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding President Biden’s executive order on digital assets was somewhat milder than expected. Although deleted from the U.S. Department of the Treasury website as it was seemingly released early by error, the order will apparently call for “a coordinated and comprehensive approach to digital asset policy.”

The commodities rally was a presage for Bitcoin’s hike

Considering that Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM) reached an all-time high of 134 on March 8, Bitcoin’s recent strength should not come as a surprise. Despite correcting to 129, the BCOM gains accumulated in 30 days remain at 18.5%, according to MarketWatch.

According to the open interest on Friday’s options expiry, Bitcoin bulls placed heavy bets between $44,000 and $48,000. These levels might seem optimistic right now, but Bitcoin tested this level eight days ago.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for March 11. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view uses the call-to-put ratio and shows a 40% advantage to Bitcoin bulls, as the $460 million call (buy) instruments have a larger open interest versus the $330 million put (sell) options. However, the 1.40 call-to-put indicator is deceptive because most bullish bets will become worthless.

For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains below $43,000 at 8:00 am UTC on March 11, only $190 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available. This effect happens because there is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $44,000 if it’s trading below that level.